Winter. The subtle sounds of the Fall season coming to an end (or a mid-season break, if you will). This time of the year is mostly a TV wasteland (outside of the NFL and the race for the playoffs), but also offers some reflection for the new shows of the Fall TV season. This is that post - the one where I look back and render judgement on all the new shows and collect my predictions to see if they're accurate or not. If you checked in last time, you'll see that for the winter 2012 season, the Opportunity Assassins ended up with right around a
66% accuracy (10.5 - 4.5 - 1) or, in other words, our predictions were correct for 2 out of every 3 shows that debuted at mid-season. So let's see how I did this time around.
Quick Note: None of the Fall 2012 shows have been officially renewed for a second season yet, so for the most part, I'll be giving scores based on the confidence of "TV by the Numbers" and their
Renew/Cancel Index.
With that out of the way, let's get on to the new Fall shows.
666 Park Avenue (ABC)
Original Prediction: 666 Park Avenue will make it through the 13 episode run, but will not be back for more after that.
Result: About a month ago, ABC closed the door on "666" and said they would air the remaining episodes (to total 13 in all). A few days ago, though, ABC decided to pull the remaining episodes but air them over the summer instead and maybe renew the series if their new winter shows bomb.
Grade: Considering the original choice of ABC to cancel, but finish the original 13 episodes, I'm giving me the full credit for accuracy.
Arrow (CW)
Comments: Arrow was one of the shows I decided to pick up right off the bat. So far it has been entertaining and gritty and dark enough so as not to be a cheesy step-cousin to Smallville. I'm looking forward to the season picking up again in January to see what new fun Arrow will bring.
Original Prediction: Arrow will pick up a full season order and be renewed for at least a second season. If I had to put an end date on it, I'm guessing either after 4 or 5 good seasons.
Result: Arrow was, indeed, picked up for a full season order. It has yet to be confirmed renewed for a second season but the writing is on the wall that this show will return for season 2.
Grade: I'm giving me preemptive full credit in anticipation for renewal.
Beauty & The Beast (CW)
Original Prediction: The CW has been known to stick it out with shows that bring in viewers with the stars that are cast, and I expect this to be no different. I imagine Beauty & The Beast will get a full season order and will probably be renewed for a second, but won't probably make it too far after that.
Result: Just as predicted, CW gave Beauty & The Beast a full season order. Once more, CW hasn't decided to cut or renew this after one season, though.
Grade: This one is too difficult to call one way or the other, so I'll take a half point on this one.
Ben & Kate (FOX)
Original Prediction: Ben & Kate is situated between strong lead-in Raising Hope and quirky New Girl, so it's in a position to carry with it quite a high viewership on Tuesdays. If the writing is up to par, Ben & Kate can make it quite a few seasons, but it's also extremely vulnerable at the 8:30 time slot. If FOX sees viewers leaving, you can bet Ben & Kate will get the boot quickly. I predict a full first season order and a second season return, but probably just a half season order to begin with.
Result: FOX brought the full season order early on in the series (October), but things aren't exactly looking peachy for a second season return.
Grade: Since FOX hasn't decided one way or another, I'll take a half point on this one.
Brickleberry (Comedy Central)
Original Prediction: Brickleberry does fairly well on Comedy Central and, while not hitting the success level set by South Park, sticks around for a few seasons.
Results: Sure enough, Brickleberry got its renewal for a second season in November.
Grade: Again, I'm once more spot on, so full credit goes to me.
Chicago Fire (NBC)
Comments: This show hasn't been spectacular and it's taken a good 4-5 weeks to get used to Chase not having an Aussie accent, but it's still good enough to stay on my watch list. It's definitely not the same genre as "Rescue Me" but I don't feel that "Chicago Fire" has been held back by being on NBC.
Original Prediction: Chicago Fire will probably do well enough to warrant a full season order and will get renewed for a second season. If the scenarios are interesting enough and we can come to care about the characters enough, expect a 4-5 season run. If not, season 2 will be the end of Chicago Fire.
Result: NBC picked up the full season order, but NBC has yet to grant "Chicago Fire" a second season renewal, though it definitely seems to be doing well enough to warrant that.
Grade: I'm taking another point on this one as I feel good about the renewal.
Elementary (CBS)
Comments: I've really enjoyed Elementary. Both the stars are captivating in their roles and their tenuous at times relationship. I'm looking forward to seeing how they'll be keeping Watson around since the rehab stint is finished.
Original Prediction: Elementary has a really good chance of becoming a viewing staple of mine. Miller and Liu are great choices to star in this show so the whole package depends on the quality of the writing. Elementary should get a full season order and be back for at least 2-3 more seasons. We might see Holmes on our TV screen for quite a long time.
Result: Elementary is probably one of CBS's hottest shows right now and, as such, received a full season order.
Grade: You guessed it - another point for me, even if the official renewal has come down yet.
Emily Owens, MD (CW)
Original Prediction: While Emily Owens, MD could be a decent sitcom, it appears that the deck is stacked against it. Now, CW doesn't exactly have a reputation of being too quick on the cancellation trigger, so you can expect a full season out of this, but I don't see it being renewed for a second season.
Result: Emily Owens got the ax as predicted, however, the CW was uncharacteristically harsh and didn't order the full season.
Grade: No renewal for a second season and no full season order means only a half point for this fella.
Guys with Kids (NBC)
Original Prediction: Guys with Kids, while promising, will be underwhelming. I'm not sure this one will get a full season order and instead will just air the 13 episodes they've ordered and end it there.
Result: In an interesting move, Guys with Kids got an order from NBC of only 4 more episodes. You can be sure that this is a series sitting on the edge of the cliff.
Grade: Well, I wasn't wrong but I wasn't right, either. This one is a push.
Last Resort (ABC)
Comments: Last Resort is probably one of the best network TV shows airing right now. The problem is that Last Resort is the best TV show nobody is watching. I'm pissed that it's ending, but I'm glad they're going to wrap up the plot so as not to leave me hanging like I was with "Journeyman."
Original Prediction: Last Resort with a spectacular cast and The Shield caliber writing will be ABC's next dramatic success. Consider this one probably the best bet for a second season return.
Result: I blame it on the MLB Playoffs, the tough time slot and the elections for the failure of this show. But it has to be said...I whiffed on this one. Big time.
Grade: My first official miss and it's a doozy.
Made in Jersey (CBS)
Original Prediction: I don't think Made in Jersey is bad enough to get the early ax after only a few episodes, but I highly doubt it will make it past the first order of episodes and into a lengthened first season let alone a second season.
Result: Made in Jersey got the earliest cancellation of the season, even before I predicted its demise.
Grade: Still - I called it. CBS cancelled this shit-show, so I get the point.
Malibu Country (ABC)
Original Prediction: I hope this one doesn't get renewed for a second season, but Friday needs another half hour sitcom to pair with Last Man Standing. Expect this one back for a second season, unfortunately.
Result: It looks like Malibu Country received the ol' half assed 5 extra episodes order, but not a full season order. The fate of this lump of crap has yet to be decided for renewal or not.
Grade: Shit...I'm not even sure how to score this one, so I'll just take a half point and call it a day.
The Mindy Project (FOX)
Original Prediction: The Mindy Project is mostly going up against a handful of new shows and Don't Trust the B in Apt. 23 which was renewed for a second season, but doesn't have a strong following. Just through a lack of competition at the 9:30PM timeslot, I think it will return for a half order for season 2, but FOX will be looking to give the golden timeslot to a show that keeps the viewers around.
Result: The Mindy Project received a full order of 24 episodes but still ends up being hit or miss on the ratings, meaning FOX still doesn't know if it's bringing "Mindy" back or not.
Grade: I'm betting on a renewal for a second season as predicted just due to the quirky girl hour that is set up with Mindy and The New Girl. Full point for me.
The Mob Doctor (FOX)
Original Prediction: The Mob Doctor can be some compelling TV for FOX especially with the cast they've lined up for the show. I imagine it will get a full season order and come back for a season 2, just on a different day. If it does make it to a season 2, that's probably when I'll add it to my viewing list.
Result: FOX officially gave the boot to "The Mob Doctor" in late November, committing to airing the original 13 ordered episodes.
Grade: The Doc looked good, but tonal issue that I pulled out of my ass had some impact on the viewership. No renewal means a failing grade on this one. One more point in the losses column.
Nashville (ABC)
Original Prediction: Nashville will do a respectable job of hanging onto its lead in viewers which will be just enough for it to be renewed for a second season. After that, though, only the strength of the second season plot will allow it to continue past that.
Result: Nashville, unfortunately for humanity, received a full season order and will most likely be renewed.
Grade: Yep. It's bad for humanity, but the result is good for my score. Add one more point for me.
The Neighbors (ABC)
Original Prediction: The Neighbors will grace us with an early season cancellation. I predict 5-6 episodes air, tops.
Result: Believe it or not, this shitty show somehow got a full season order and is looking like it'll be brought back for a second one.
Grade: Consider this almost as surprising news as the cancellation of Last Resort. I'm not sure how this happened and I'd rather put it behind me and move on. One point in the loss column.
The New Normal (NBC)
Original Prediction: I think The New Normal will be slow going, but it'll garner enough of an audience for NBC to pull in a second season where it will really start to improve. This will be one to keep an eye on.
Result: The New Normal received a full season order very early on (in October) so things look to be going in the right direction so far. It also looks like it'll be coming back for a second.
Grade: I'll be taking another point for this one.
Partners (CBS)
Original Prediction: The Will and Grace fans will most likely come back to Partners, bringing with them an almost sure-fire bet of a second season return. Add that to the lead-in crowd from previously mentioned How I Met Your Mother and you've got a pretty sure bet even if Partners isn't great.
Result: Looks like I was good and wrong, as Partners was cancelled mid-November.
Grade: No beating around the bush with this one, so another point in the losses column.
Revolution (NBC)
Comments: Revolution has been a fun one to watch, even if the lead chick's character has started out as being insanely annoying but she's improved quite a bit from the beginning. Revolution isn't afraid to kill off larger characters, which is helpful, plus it's not exactly an expensive show to produce.
Original Prediction: Lately, J.J. Abrams shows haven't had a great track record, but the fans of his shows are loyal. I'm betting on Revolution being a good enough show that the fans will keep it around for a second season. Besides, with NBC's low standards, Revolution has a lower bar set for it.
Result: Revolution certainly received the full season order and looks like it'll be back for a second.
Grade: Spot on, good sir. Spot on. One more point for this guy.
Vegas (CBS)
Comments: I watched right around the first five episodes of Vegas and was bored close to tears. I couldn't stick with it, but it seems to not have stopped others.
Prediction; With a powerhouse cast and good writing, Vegas is a sure bet. I just hope it doesn't feel gimped by not being on a network like FX or HBO where there's a bit more freedom. Vegas will be back for a season 2, no doubt about it.
Result: Vegas received a full season order, but then the order was reduced by 2 episodes which were given to Elementary instead. It's not looking good for a second season right now, but it's still anyone's guess.
Grade: I was right about the full order (even though I didn't predict it, technically), but the second season renewal looks iffy enough that I'll take a half point.
Winter 2012 Grade: 10.5 - 4.5 - 1 (65.6%)
Fall 2012 Grade: 12.5 - 6.5 - 1 (62.5%)
Total so far: 23 - 11 - 2 (63.9%)
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